Bitcoin at Start of New Bull Market

Video: Bitcoin Is at Beginning a Bull Market, Says Strategy's Saylor

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Oct 25, 2026 · based on the channel Bloomberg Tech

Michael Saylor, founder and Executive Chairman of Strategy, says bitcoin is at the beginning of a bull market, pointing to favorable regulation and accelerating bank adoption as the two forces driving it. The call, made in an exclusive interview from DC Fintech Week on Bloomberg Crypto, is a bet that institutional infrastructure now matters more than the four-year halving narrative many traders still trade around. More context on the companies and technology behind the market is available at Bloomberg Technology.

What Saylor actually said about bitcoin

Saylor framed the current moment as an early stage of a new upcycle rather than a late one. His argument rests on two pillars: a regulatory environment in the United States that has shifted from enforcement-first to rule-making, and banks moving from custody pilots to products that let clients hold bitcoin inside familiar accounts. In his view, those two changes expand the pool of buyers faster than new supply can respond.

The claim is notable because it comes from the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. Strategy has built a treasury of hundreds of thousands of BTC, funded largely by equity issuance and convertible debt, which makes the company one of the most leveraged public proxies for the asset. When Saylor speaks about a bull market, he is describing both the market and his own balance sheet.

The case for favorable regulation

Regulatory clarity is the first leg of the thesis. For most of bitcoin's history, the biggest obstacle for large allocators was not price volatility but legal uncertainty: whether custody, trading and banking services would be permitted, and who would supervise them. Saylor's point is that this uncertainty has been steadily replaced by frameworks that tell banks what they may do with digital assets.

That matters mechanically. A pension fund or an insurer cannot buy an asset its custodian will not hold and its auditor will not value. Once regulated banks offer custody, the compliance department stops being a veto and becomes a process. Saylor has consistently argued that this unlocks capital that was never waiting for a better price, only for a clearer rulebook.

Why bank adoption changes the demand curve

Bank adoption is the second leg, and it works differently from retail speculation. Retail flows are fast and reflexive; institutional flows are slow, contractual and sticky. A private bank that adds a small bitcoin allocation to model portfolios creates recurring monthly buying that does not stop when the price drops 20%.

Saylor's framing also implies a shift in who owns the marginal bitcoin. As banks, brokers and exchange-traded products absorb supply, fewer coins sit in the hands of traders willing to sell on a headline. That thinner free float can amplify moves in both directions, which is exactly what the skeptics point to when they question the bull market label.

The four-year cycle argument and its critics

A large part of the bitcoin community still organizes its expectations around the halving cycle, the roughly four-year rhythm in which supply issuance is cut and price peaks follow. Some traders argue the bottom of the current cycle has already formed and that the next top is still hundreds of days away, a timetable that would fit Saylor's early-bull-market claim.

Others are unconvinced. The most common objection is arithmetic: calling a bull market while bitcoin trades far below its all-time high, in some readings almost 50% under the peak near $126,000, looks premature. Critics also note that Strategy's own stock has been sold off on strong bitcoin days, a sign that shareholders are pricing dilution from the company's capital raises rather than the underlying asset. Both readings can be true at once: the asset and the equity are different instruments with different risk.

How traders can read the signal

Treat Saylor's view as one input, not a trade signal. A practical way to use it:

1. Separate the asset from the proxy. Bitcoin and Strategy shares carry different risk; the stock adds leverage, dilution and index-membership questions that bitcoin does not have.
2. Watch bank product announcements rather than price targets. New custody or allocation offerings are the concrete evidence behind the adoption thesis.
3. Track regulation as a calendar, not a headline. Rule-making deadlines and supervisory guidance move institutional flows more than interviews do.
4. Size positions for volatility. Even in a bull market, 40% drawdowns have been routine, and leverage turns a correct thesis into a forced exit.
5. Check supply data. Exchange balances and corporate treasury disclosures show whether coins are actually leaving the free float.

Questions traders are asking about the call

The most frequent doubt is timing: if bitcoin is at the beginning of a bull market, why is it still so far from its record? The honest answer is that early-cycle claims are always made before the price confirms them, and Saylor's own history includes both correct long-term calls and painful interim drawdowns.

The second doubt concerns Strategy itself. Investors ask why the stock sometimes falls when bitcoin rises, and the answer usually lies in capital structure: every new share or convertible note issued to buy more coins dilutes existing holders and can cap the equity's reaction. The third doubt is whether bank adoption is real or promotional; custody launches and portfolio allocations are the metrics to watch, not conference stages.

Where to follow the underlying data

Bloomberg's technology coverage tracks the companies building market infrastructure, from exchanges to custodians to corporate treasuries. The relevant links from the interview:

• Bloomberg Technology
• Bloomberg Technology on X
• Bloomberg Technology on Facebook
• Bloomberg Business on Instagram
• Ed Ludlow on X

Bottom line on Saylor's bull market call

Saylor's thesis is that regulation and bank distribution, not the halving calendar, will drive the next leg of bitcoin demand, and that the cycle is closer to its start than its end. The claim is testable: watch custody launches, allocation products and supervisory guidance over the coming quarters. It is also self-interested, given Strategy's enormous treasury, so weigh it as a thesis from a major holder rather than a forecast. The full interview and the surrounding market coverage are available through Bloomberg Tech, whose breakdown this article draws on. For ongoing reporting, visit Bloomberg Technology.

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